Mirus Reporter

What Was Ever Certain?

The ever-changing situation surrounding COVID 19 is unprecedented and for many it's a time of uncertainty and great concern. Reading this or similar comments in numerous articles, LinkedIn posts and Twitter feeds has made me ask, is there such a thing as certainty in our uncertain world?

I suppose, in certain limited and controlled situations it's arguable that it exists. Heck, the definition of certainty even says it exists; "a fact that is definitely true or an event that is definitely going to take place”.

My observation of certainty is that many of us, myself included, expect things will go the way we’ve come to expect (the same old routine) day in and day out, and we take comfort in our belief in this certainty. Therefore, certainty is a way for us to feel in control - to believe that things are going to unfold in a certain, predictable way.

Happy 4th of July!

Since my last post, we have had Father's Day and the 4th of July, and a whole lot of mis-direction by Governors. Sales and traffic continue to improve week to week, but there is now regular volatility in the numbers. I believe this is an indication we have gotten back the low hanging fruit, and getting higher levels of sales may take a lot longer.

Father's Day had been the best sales day since the pandemic started. Mirus Index shows sales down less than -18% from the same day last year; by far the best to date.

Memorial Day Hangover?

Memorial Day in 2020 fell on the earliest date it can be according to the calendar. And, given the softening of restrictions on restaurants in the two weeks leading up to the holiday weekend, it is no surprise that Memorial Day was a big hit! Sales jumped over 16% over the previous Monday, but was still down -45% from last year.

You hear how numbers can be lead you to the wrong conclusion if not understood. An example of this is illustrated in the chart above on the day after Memorial Day. The chart shows sales were down -3.42% from the previous Tuesday, but what it doesn't show is that May 26 was the best day for sales compared to last year since the pandemic began. The sales this year were only down -41%, meaning the industry had almost 60% of the sales it had last year. That is good news.

May 11

Thanks Mom!

Every mother loves Mother's Day; a day for them to be recognized and if they are lucky, pampered.

In this Covid-19 world, it also gave a boost to restaurant sales. Traditionally, Mother's day treats restaurants well, and for some it is one of the busiest days of the year. This year, sales at restaurants increased over 44% from the previous Sunday (May 3). And, it's not like May 3 was a soft day; the sales for that day were almost 10% higher than the previous Sunday.

Total sales volume (not SSS) on Mother's Day was also more than 50% of last year's Mother's Day, a milestone celebrated by many. As an industry we have come a long way from a few weeks ago when aggregate sales were down over 70%. It may take some time for sales to fully recover, but the evidence over the past six weeks shows a steady week by week improvement.

May 1

Does anyone else sense that time is flying even faster than usual? You may not have this distorted sense of time if you are working from home, or laid off, but it is already May. Some thought at the start of this pandemic that all would be normal at this time. Seems like a silly, optimistic projection today, and we still have no clear picture on how the next several months are going to play out.

For those following this diary, I'd like to say thanks. And, if you have any thoughts or ideas you think would be constructive to our audience, please leave your comments at the bottom of this blog, or email me at dave@mirus.com.

Positive events continue to be revealed. Last week, the sales trend data indicated that we might have hit a bump in the road. Since then, the growth of restaurant sales has continued in a steady fashion. Here is the Mirus Index by Day for the month of April compared to the same day from the Previous Week. Easter is the first thing you might notice. There are two anomalies related to Easter, the week it fell on last year, and the week it fell on this year. The large negative is Easter this year, and the spike is the following Sunday when this year is compared to a weak Easter last year. Keep in mind these are same-store calculations, so a restaurant has to be open this year and last year to be included in these numbers.

April 24 Diary Entry

For those who have been following my posts and articles, you have heard the news that the sales of the restaurant industry hit their lowest point at the end of March. Since then, sales have been improving slowly on a week-to-week basis. In recent weeks, the Mirus Index has shown an increase in sales on a same-store basis.

Since Easter, the rate of sales increase accelerated to about 16%, that is until a couple of days ago.

April 13 Diary Entry

The restaurant industry started the year 2020 stronger than any year in more than a decade, although the impact of Covid-19 was already working its way into the numbers. Between March 12 and March 16, city by city, state by state shut down the restaurant dining room. All of the sports leagues also suspended operations. Curbside, takeout, drive-thru and delivery were now the only service channels for restaurants. That is when it hit the fan. Since then, is there any good news?

The restaurant business is complex, much more so than customers would typically believe. We have lived through an explosion of new software tools that help restaurant operators manage this complexity and in the process they have created a new dilemma; understanding it all.

The Roaring Twenties has a lot of similarities to what has been going on in recent times. In the early 1920's, it was a time of hope and prosperity. With WWI over, the economy was booming, jazz was all the rage, women's rights was a critical topic, and people were out spending lots of money.

According to the Mirus Index, January closed with the best sales and traffic performance since 2015. Traffic, in particular, has been an industry problem for most of the last 5 years.